877
ACUS11 KWNS 070314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070314
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-070545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL...FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 070314Z - 070545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
SEVERAL SMALL CELLS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION HAVE BEEN NOTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL. THESE CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. MODEST MLCAPE AND WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH, BUT RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES (AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL VWPS) WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE THREAT OF A TORNADO
AND/OR ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS.
FARTHER WEST, MULTIPLE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY
EMERGED FROM REGENERATIVE CONVECTION NEAR/EAST OF MOBILE. SOME
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP IF ANY
OF THESE CLUSTERS CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND SUSTAINED AS THEY
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
WATCH ISSUANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY, DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED, BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF
ORGANIZING STORMS.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30208582 30188740 30148813 30548794 30988760 31728685
32478598 33038479 32738405 31798446 30698519 30418548
30278566 30208582
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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