718
ACUS48 KWNS 070859
SWOD48
SPC AC 070857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON APR 07 2025
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAYS 4-5/THURSDAY-FRIDAY
A POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON DAY
4/THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE RETURNING AHEAD OF A RELATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS, WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG MIDLEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE-STORM RISK. HOWEVER,
THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK/VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT STORM INTENSITY. BY DAY 5/FRIDAY, THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. PRECEDING THE TROUGH, STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC -- WHERE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A RELATED SURFACE
FRONT. SIMILAR TO DAY 4/THURSDAY, THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DAYS 7-8/SUNDAY-MONDAY
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 7/SUNDAY, AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON DAY 8/MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A RELATED LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 7/SUNDAY, THOUGH A STRONG EML
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BY DAY 8/MONDAY, GUIDANCE
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
RELATED WARM SECTOR, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE-STORM
POTENTIAL.
..WEINMAN.. 04/07/2025
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