227
ACUS11 KWNS 071241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071240
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-071445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT MON APR 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071240Z - 071445Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR
TWO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS CONTINUES IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 10-11 AM EDT.
IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED IN THE
NEAR TERM, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...STRONGER BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY, CHARACTERIZED BY
CAPE NEAR OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG, STILL REMAINS CONFINED TO A NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA. HOWEVER, SOME
COOLING LOFT APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST WEAK
DESTABILIZATION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT.
THE FRONT, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES ALONG IT, WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH THE
RAPID REFRESH INDICATING THAT A MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET (IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AROUND 850 MB) WILL MAINTAIN
SIZABLE, CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS.
CLOUD COVER SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGER ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL SLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, AND
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITIES IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THE MCV,
WHICH APPARENTLY RECENTLY CONTRIBUTED TO A TORNADO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE GREATER ATLANTA AREA, CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT, AND IT NOT CLEAR THAT THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
TORNADO OR TWO. FARTHER SOUTH, IN THE CORRIDOR OF BETTER
INSTABILITY, FOCUSED ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR/NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ALBANY INTO MACON VICINITIES, THERE MAY ALSO BE
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED INTENSIFICATION OF
MESO-VORTICES EMBEDDED WITH THE ONGOING NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443
30508493 32118371
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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