251
ACUS11 KWNS 072047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072047
SCZ000-GAZ000-072145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT MON APR 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072047Z - 072145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED ALONG THE
DEEPER WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT, BUT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION, A RECENT INCREASE
IN UPDRAFT DEPTH/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS
DEEPENING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE DEEPER WIND SHIFT, WITH
A BAND OF ASCENT IMPINGING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE PRIOR CONVECTION COOLED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
WEAKENED/BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME, AND SHEAR VECTORS ARE
PRIMARILY PARALLEL TO THE LINE ORIENTATION. THUS, THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE, AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OR
WATCH EXTENSION APPEARS UNNECESSARY.
..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 04/07/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31538273 31138320 31348357 32498291 33268242 33388180
31928223 31538273
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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