887
ACUS48 KWNS 080839
SWOD48
SPC AC 080837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2025
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION
ON DAY 4/FRIDAY, AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF A RELATED SURFACE LOW IN
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WEAKLY MODIFIED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL, OWING TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND POOR
LAPSE RATES, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
BY DAY 6/SUNDAY, A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE AN ELONGATED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGH (WITH EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS) PROMOTES PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS VALLEY.
DESPITE MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE PLAINS, CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A STRONG EML AND RELATED CAPPING ATOP THE
LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THEREAFTER, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE
TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR -- LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE-STORM
POTENTIAL FOR DAYS 7-8/MONDAY-TUESDAY.
..WEINMAN.. 04/08/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page