710
ACUS48 KWNS 090839
SWOD48
SPC AC 090837
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 09 2025
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
..DISCUSSION
FROM DAY 5/SUNDAY THROUGH DAY 6/MONDAY, A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
ON DAY 5/SUNDAY, A RELATED BROAD/ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE A DRYLINE
DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY, THOUGH POOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
SEVERE RISK. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE, A STRONG EML AND
RELATED CAPPING SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER BUOYANCY HERE.
ON DAY 6/MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS, IN TANDEM WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH. STRONG
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONT MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE-STORM RISK FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL RISK.
..WEINMAN.. 04/09/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page