459
ACUS11 KWNS 101956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101956
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-102230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU APR 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PRIMARILY FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101956Z - 102230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS AR AND TOWARD THE MS RIVER. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE HELPING TO MAINTAIN A PLUME OF MID 50S F
DEWPOINTS WHICH NOW EXTEND INTO AL. MEANWHILE, STRONG HEATING
CONTINUES.
THE SOUTHERLY PERIPHERY OF THE MIDLEVEL COOLING IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY, INDICATED BY THE CU FIELDS FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO
TN. AS THIS COOLING ALOFT RAPIDLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST, CORRIDORS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE SURFACE THETA-E PLUME SHOULD RESULT
IN CORRIDORS OF SEVERE STORMS. LONG HODOGRAPHS, COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING WILL
FAVOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 04/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33088987 33809069 34479082 34899082 35159058 35249007
35078922 34958795 34788597 34648553 34198505 33378491
32868515 32548548 32378640 32578804 33088987
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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