681
ACUS48 KWNS 120843
SWOD48
SPC AC 120841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2025
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN SEVERE POTENTIAL MID-WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING SEVERE POSSIBILITIES LATE WEEK. COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE VASTLY CHANGED TO AN EVOLUTION
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE LOWER CO VALLEY DURING D5-7/WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
A GREATER BREADTH AND QUALITY OF WESTERN GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES BENEATH AN INITIALLY PRONOUNCED EML. SPC
AND NSSL GEFS-BASED ML GUIDANCE INDICATE BROADENING 5 TO MESOSCALE
POCKETS OF 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES DURING D6-8/THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY AND RATHER LARGE SPREAD
ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, CONSIDERATION OF ANY SEVERE AREA APPEARS
PREMATURE THIS CYCLE.
..GRAMS.. 04/12/2025
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