549
ACUS11 KWNS 150040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150040
VAZ000-WVZ000-150215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...
VALID 150040Z - 150215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WW 139 IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
FARTHER NORTH, ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE
WITHIN PARTS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A SUPERCELL CURRENTLY
IN NELSON COUNTY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THIS LEAD SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO MOVE MORE EAST-NORTHEAST
THE LAST HALF HOUR, SUGGESTING IT MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO BEING
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. EVEN SO, MRMS DATA SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS
OCCURRING. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE TRAINING BEHIND THE
LEAD SUPERCELL AND WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA, TEMPERATURES HAVE DIABATICALLY COOLED AS BROAD
AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS AND THE KRLX VAD SHOWED 35-45 KTS OF FLOW
BEHIND THE PASSING CONVECTION. WITH THE DULLES 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
SHOWING 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A
STRONG/DAMAGING GUST COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE CORES
DEVELOP.
..WENDT.. 04/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37828011 38817934 39067924 39127892 38897781 38797749
38417729 37537725 37427730 37307752 37207799 37237843
37658017 37828011
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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