720
ACUS11 KWNS 151608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151608
NYZ000-PAZ000-151915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151608Z - 151915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE 2-4 PM EDT TIME FRAME, PARTICULARLY IN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS IS GENERALLY FOCUSED BENEATH THE LEADING OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES HAVE
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AND THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING AND MIXING WITH
INSOLATION.
THE LAST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE THROUGH 18-20Z. THIS MAY INCLUDE CAPE
INCREASING ONLY TO THE ORDER OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG FOR A
SEASONABLY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WITH PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
MELTING, AND AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW (ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT) IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER.
..KERR/GUYER.. 04/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 42837591 43187450 42547412 42027412 40927731 41097943
42207838 42837591
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page