288
ACUS02 KWNS 151724
SWODY2
SPC AC 151723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
BEFORE PHASING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
..CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS INCREASING CIN
AND LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BENEATH A STRONG EML. REGARDLESS, AGREEMENT
HAS INCREASED ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING NEAR THE DRYLINE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION, THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING.
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER TOWARD THE END OF PEAK HEATING IN THE
EARLY EVENING. A FEW HI-RES SOLUTIONS HAVE HINTED AT DEVELOPMENT OF
A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITHIN THIS REGION, APPARENT IN UH TRACKS FROM
THE 12Z HREF. CONDITIONALLY, AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL IN THIS REGION
COULD SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL, GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND
AMPLE SHEAR/CAPE.
..ELSEWHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.
..THORNTON/LEITMAN.. 04/15/2025
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