839
ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
..TX PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KS AND VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT
MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO
THE MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT, AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE CA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS WILL OCCUR FROM TX
TO KS, BENEATH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KS, WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP MIXING OCCUR ALONG THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IN DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MODEST, BUT STORMS THAT
FORM (ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS) COULD PERSIST/SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION.
..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 04/16/2025
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