792
ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING, ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD OPEN WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY, WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE LOW/DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA AND INTO MINNESOTA.
..EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS MAXIMIZED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS REGION WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO 60S, WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON AMID A PLUME OF STEEP LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE MLCIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF IOWA, A CORRIDOR OF OPEN WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WHERE WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. THESE SUPERCELLS MAY BE INITIALLY SURFACE BASED, CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL (SOME VERY LARGE 2"+), DAMAGING WIND, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
UNDERCUTTING OF STORMS AS WELL AS STORM MOTIONS THAT FAVOR TRAINING
CELLS, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EVENING
WHILE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT.
A FEW SURFACE BASED CELLS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE LESS FAVORABLE THIS FAR NORTHWARD
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND,
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..THORNTON/JEWELL.. 04/16/2025
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