911
ACUS11 KWNS 170647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170646
KSZ000-MOZ000-170845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170646Z - 170845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAWN AS BOTH A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL ARC OF STORMS DEVELOPS
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...NEAR-TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A SMALL WEST/EAST-ORIENTED CLUSTER
RECENTLY INTENSIFIED. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AMID UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS, THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS CLUSTER SHOULD BE STRONG TO LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EVEN AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MIGHT YIELD A SURGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE
CLUSTER WOULD IMPINGE ON WARMING 700-MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY
LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLUSTER, ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STOUT EML, SOME OF THESE UPDRAFTS MIGHT DEEPEN
AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST. SMALL TO ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 38569841 38959875 39519880 39739738 39909645 39909580
39829548 39699518 39389492 38809472 38499471 38199498
37859527 37719563 37829653 38409726 38569841
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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