228
ACUS11 KWNS 171138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171137
MOZ000-KSZ000-171300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171137Z - 171300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID-MORNING.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY CONSOLIDATED INTO
A CLUSTER ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WHILE THE LEADING CELL IN THE CLUSTER HAS LOST ITS DEEP CORE, IT MAY
PRODUCE A SWATH OF STRONG GUSTS. UPSTREAM EMBEDDED CELL HAS YIELDED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND MAY UNDERGO A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO THE
LEAD CELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS IN MO. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET, THIS CLUSTER SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38439392 38519358 38259276 37929215 37509210 37169227
36929243 36939362 37069420 37739472 38149467 38439392
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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