533
ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM BAJA
CA TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN STATES, WITH A HIGH OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA.
AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE
EAST, WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS MOISTENING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN WI
INTO CENTRAL MO AND OK AT 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST, AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY.
..LOWER MO VALLEY INTO OK AND TX
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER TX AND INTO WESTERN OK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR I-40 AT 00Z, WITH
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE HEATED AIR FROM
WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. MLCAPE OVER 2500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE, AND
WIND PROFILES SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE TORNADOES PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT
UNDERCUTTING THE STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OK. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH SIDE OF THE FRONT AS
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ELONGATED AND PRIMARILY FRONT-PARALLEL.
FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO KS AND MO, ADDITIONAL LIFT VIA WARM ADVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS, POSSIBLY ELEVATED BUT ALSO WITH HAIL AND LOCALIZED
WIND POTENTIAL.
..UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY OVER PARTS OF WI AND INTO NORTHERN/UPPER MI, WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED MARGINAL HAIL RISK. FARTHER
SOUTH, LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN WI TO THE IA/IL BORDER AREA AND INTO MO, AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING. THOUGH CAPPED, LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INSTIGATE
SCATTERED CELLS NEAR 00Z, WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS
IL, IN, AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN MI AND NORTHWEST OH. WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT OVER 50 KT, AIDING WIND GUSTS. A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THIS REGION, AND SCATTERED
HAIL IS LIKELY AS WELL.
..JEWELL.. 04/17/2025
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