704
ACUS11 KWNS 180107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180106
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT THU APR 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140...
VALID 180106Z - 180230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, CONVECTION HAS FORMED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE TO WEAK WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE BOUNDARY. 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, LIMITED
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
THOUGH PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA ARE STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, SURFACE COOLING HAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE IN
MLCIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE LOW. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, A SIMILAR HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD EXIST PRIOR TO THE FRONT UNDERCUTTING
CONVECTION.
..WENDT.. 04/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42269651 42239689 42429702 43609613 44069510 44229467
44249410 44239352 44079339 43379446 42549583 42339629
42269651
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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