506
ACUS01 KWNS 190531
SWODY1
SPC AC 190529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING
THE DAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK.
..TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW DIGGING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN AZ. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO
SOUTHERN NM BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER 20/06Z.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BOUTS OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAVE
EVOLVED ACROSS OK INTO SOUTHERN MO. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD, THOUGH SOME PROPENSITY
FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INTO NORTH TX AS CINH IS
GRADUALLY REMOVED INTO THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. WIND
PROFILES ARE NOTABLY STRONG ALONG THIS FRONTAL CORRIDOR AND UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGER CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR
FROM FAR WEST TX INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED ALONG THE DRY LINE AND SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO MATURE AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL TX. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR, AND THIS MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF THE FRONTAL
ZONE DOES NOT SAG TOO FAR SOUTH RESULTING IN MORE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS.
EVEN SO, LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FOR ANY
SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
TORNADOES AS WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG AND PROFILES ARE MOIST. DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TX
INTO EASTERN OK, IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING SHORT
WAVE. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN OK BY SUNDAY MORNING. IF BUOYANCY CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO
THIS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HIGHER SEVERE PROBS MAY BE
WARRANTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AT THIS TIME,
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ARE CONCERNING FOR
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO UPSTATE NY
TODAY, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MODEST BUOYANCY, AND SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR. SCATTERED
CONVECTION, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG UPDRAFTS, MAY ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.
..DARROW/SQUITIERI.. 04/19/2025
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