154
ACUS02 KWNS 221733
SWODY2
SPC AC 221731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ALOFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH ONLY WEAK/EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW FIELD
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION. STILL, WITH
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT MAINTAINING WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND POTENTIALLY
A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO VICINITY, LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A
SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
WHILE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- MAY HINDER
DESTABILIZATION LOCALLY, AFTERNOON INSOLATION SHOULD SUPPORT 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA. NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE IOWA/NEBRASKA KANSAS AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOCATION/COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY
AFOREMENTIONED/EARLIER STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. WHERE AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, A FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.
GREATER SEVERE RISK -- ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
-- REMAINS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA AND INTO THE
TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS. HERE, A LESS PERTURBED AIRMASS SHOULD
HEAT/DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY, AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING DRYLINE.
WITH MODEST BUT VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT, SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH STRONGER STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE STORMS.
SOME CONGEALING/UPSCALE GROWTH MAY OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING, AS STORMS
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS, BUT OVERALL
SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DIURNALLY.
..PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE A
HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
VICINITY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK, AND THUS STORMS GENERALLY RATHER DISORGANIZED, THE
DEGREE OF CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL, A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING COULD ALSO PROMOTE SOME
EVAPORATIVE ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNDRAFTS -- POSSIBLY YIELDING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION --
AND ANY ONGOING SEVERE RISK -- WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
..GOSS.. 04/22/2025
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