034
ACUS11 KWNS 221914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221914
NCZ000-SCZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221914Z - 222145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH 5-7 PM EDT, ACCOMPANIED BY
AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. THIS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED AND A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY, PERHAPS SUPPORTED BY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL COOLING ON THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, DESTABILIZATION FOR A
MODESTLY MOIST AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS INHIBITED BY WEAK
HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, CAPE WITHIN THE MIXED-PHASE LAYER
MIGHT STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL, AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH A 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAK AROUND 500 MB.
LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN MORE MODEST, BUT WITH AT LEAST
SOME FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOMENTUM MAY LEAD TO A FEW
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
..KERR/HART.. 04/22/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35098137 36287916 36537783 36447688 35667752 34977936
34078076 34028224 35098137
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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