599
ACUS02 KWNS 230522
SWODY2
SPC AC 230520
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS, AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
ANOTHER DAY OF LOW-AMPLITUDE, MODEST WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. REMNANT CONVECTION
FROM THE DAY 1/WED PERIOD MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF KS/OK/TX, BUT THE LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST TX, AND TO THE SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY SOME GUIDANCE TO
RESIDE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW DAY 1/WED
CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS, A CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE IS FORECAST, MOST LIKELY FROM WEST TX INTO OK, WITH MORE
MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE MODEST, EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-35
KT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST
TX, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS. FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO, MODEST MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO KS/OK AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TX,
POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION IS RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RE-INVIGORATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY, OR
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING GUSTS COULD BECOME
MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING IF UPSCALE GROWTH CAN OCCUR AS A
25-35 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) PROBABILITIES
ACROSS AN EXPANDED AREA.
..LEITMAN.. 04/23/2025
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