031
ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231242
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF TX, AIDED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED, BUT IT COULD STILL POSE SOME
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX AND
UPPER TX COAST. IN ITS WAKE, A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS WILL
EXIST TODAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TX, WHILE MODIFIED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE SCENARIO TO
YESTERDAY REMAINS APPARENT, WITH GENERALLY MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS SHOULD ADVANCE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BOTH SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LATER TODAY.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN COMBINATION WITH THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL FOSTER
AROUND 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE
FOR MODEST CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
THE FRONT AND DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MULTICELLS
AND SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS IS ANTICIPATED, WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS
FOR BOTH SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS SHOWING GREATER
COVERAGE OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS THIS EVENING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
OWING TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. EVEN SO, A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
LONGEVITY AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
..UPPER MIDWEST
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE FRONT SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE IT
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..SOUTHEAST
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT
SURFACE FRONT. GENERALLY MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL.
..GLEASON/BROYLES.. 04/23/2025
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