130
ACUS02 KWNS 231722
SWODY2
SPC AC 231721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS, AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY AGAIN ON THURSDAY, THOUGH FASTER FLOW IS
PROGGED OVER NEW ENGLAND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND -- EVENTUALLY -- NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND TROUGH, OFF THE WEST COAST, IS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
BACKGROUND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES. BY EVENING, A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST
OVER THE IOWA VICINITY, WITH SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TRAILING FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
MIX EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS AREAS, WHILE REMAINING MORE STATIONARY BUT SHARPENING
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AND THE
DRYLINE, SHOULD BOTH FOCUS DIURNAL INCREASES IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
...EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MRGL RISK AREA, INCLUDING WESTERN KANSAS AND
POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA OF TEXAS. THE TEXAS
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, THOUGH THE KANSAS STORMS
-- OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
BY AFTERNOON, AS HEATING OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR CONTRIBUTES TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS, AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE MIXING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK/SUB-OPTIMAL IN TERMS OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL, VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL
ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
THOUGH TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVERALL, SLIGHTLY GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AREA, AND ADJACENT, EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. HERE, NEAR A WEAK LOW AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND THE DRYLINE, BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA MAY CONGEAL/GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING,
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS AREA AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES. ATTENDANT, LOCAL RISK FOR
HAIL/WIND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
..GOSS.. 04/23/2025
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