545
ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240520
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA,
NORTHWEST TEXAS, AND EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
BUILDING RIDGE, MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL (-10
TO -14 C AT 500 MB) AND WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS KS INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-03Z. A DRYLINE ALSO
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THE DAY 1/THU PERIOD COULD BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK/KS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT IF THIS OCCURS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO EXTEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY
WHERE STRONGER HEATING OCCURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30
KT SUGGESTS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. WHERE
STRONGER HEATING OCCURS, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO COULD
SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS.
..OH VALLEY
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON FRIDAY. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL LARGELY REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA AND LAG BEHIND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND A FEW
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SMALL
HAIL. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..LEITMAN.. 04/24/2025
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