219
ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS...AND FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA,
NORTHWEST TEXAS, AND EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MICHIGAN AREA. AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS/SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
AND MORE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AREA.
MEANWHILE IN THE WEST, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
DEEPEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AREA, IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT.
DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT, RATHER WEAK WARM-SECTOR CAPPING SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, BUT MODEST SHEAR, AND LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING, SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/MID SOUTH REGION, NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED/ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODEST CAPE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH RATHER WEAK SHEAR AS WELL, ANY
SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED/LOCAL.
..GOSS.. 04/24/2025
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