018
ACUS11 KWNS 250335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250335
OKZ000-250500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...
VALID 250335Z - 250500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH THE LONGEVITY OF THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...AFTER BEING CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OK FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING, AN LONG-LIVED STORM CLUSTER HAS SHOWN SOME
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OVER THE LAST HOUR. IN THE SHORT
TERM, THIS CLUSTER MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF HAIL, LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO, AS IT MOVES THROUGH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER,
INCREASING MLCINH WITH TIME AND SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT RENDERS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR THE ONGOING CLUSTER TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD ALONG A WEAKLY CONFLUENT SURFACE BOUNDARY, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE TRAILING
OUTFLOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE
TX PANHANDLE TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST OK, WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
..DEAN.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 36389957 36849814 36839746 36589707 36059714 35599765
35489826 35439880 35339944 35319976 35479992 35629996
35919993 36149995 36389957
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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