065
ACUS11 KWNS 250452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250451
OKZ000-TXZ000-250615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...
VALID 250451Z - 250615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THREE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE, WHILE CONVECTION IN OK HAS
EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A QUASI-LINEAR MODE, THOUGH A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN OK. WHILE MLCINH IS
INCREASING REGION-WIDE, THE BEST RELATIVE STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME WESTERN OK, WHERE MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE ONGOING
STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME, A
SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (AS NOTED
ON THE KAMA VWP) MAY SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING
SUPERCELLS IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE, LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR AS LONG AS VIGOROUS CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER NORTHEAST, A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OK, WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THE LONGEVITY OF THIS BOWING SEGMENT MAY BE LIMITED BY
DIMINISHING DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MLCINH, BUT A
SEVERE-WIND THREAT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT.
..DEAN.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 35920128 35779951 36199798 36549747 36599668 36279616
35869621 35429676 35109813 34869967 34860029 34930107
35000139 35250152 35770162 35920128
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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