590
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL DRAW RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING A SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EAST OF THIS DRYLINE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE
DRYLINE. THEREFORE, WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND A SHARP DRYLINE
CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. AT THIS TIME, STORM
COVERAGE APPEARS TOO SPARSE TO SUPPORT GREATER PROBABILITIES, BUT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WHEREVER SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP.
FARTHER NORTH, NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, STORM COVERAGE PROBABILITIES
INCREASE DUE TO STRONGER FORCING. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AFTER 00Z, MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
..BENTLEY.. 04/25/2025
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