925
ACUS11 KWNS 251406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251406
MSZ000-LAZ000-251530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS AND EASTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251406Z - 251530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED, MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY ALONG/EAST OF A PORTION OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BROAD, GENERALLY BROKEN
CONVECTIVE PLUME FROM THE LOWER MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS, A FEW DEEPER
UPDRAFTS HAVE PERSISTED. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION
SAMPLED RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. STILL, WITH 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, TRANSIENT/WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ON THE TAIL-END OF THE CONVECTIVE PLUME.
WITH MORE ROBUST INSOLATION ACROSS SOUTHERN LA, MLCAPE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF THESE STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
PROBABLY THE MAIN MORNING HAZARD, WITH STRONG GUSTS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS DEVELOPMENT ON THE IMMEDIATE
BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MAY OUTPACE THE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AL.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31959149 31979080 31858992 31578924 31078940 30758977
30669094 30759190 31049209 31409193 31959149
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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