813
ACUS01 KWNS 251646
SWODY1
SPC AC 251645
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK...
..SUMMARY
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST CENTERED ON
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS LARGE TO GIANT HAIL
BEING PROBABLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.
..FAR EASTERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED
SOUTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM EAST TX WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS/CAPROCK VICINITY. FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH OVER
EASTERN NM WITH A SEASONABLY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS (60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS) LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG
HEATING EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION GRADUALLY ERODES NEAR THE
BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
VEERING TO 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, AND FURTHER
INCREASING TO 70-KT IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY
AND SHEAR WILL STRONGLY FAVOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY. LARGE
TO GIANT HAIL (UP TO 2.5 TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER) WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO RISK WILL PROBABLY
FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PEAK DURING THE
EARLY EVENING, WHEN A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE
HAIL/TORNADO RISK GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY A WIND RISK
LATE.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN, A COUPLE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LARGE TO GIANT
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
..LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST INTO TN AND OH VALLEY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A
MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND HODOGRAPHS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS. DESPITE MOIST PROFILES AND LIMITED LAPSE
RATES, LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE (45-55 MPH GUSTS) MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
..SMITH/WENDT.. 04/25/2025
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