248
ACUS11 KWNS 251745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251744
TXZ000-NMZ000-251945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 251744Z - 251945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT CBS ARE FORMING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE GRADIENT OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TX. THESE CELLS SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED IN THE NEXT HOUR BUT MAY
INITIALLY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH STILL MODERATE MLCIN
OVER THE PECOS VALLEY. BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS SHOULD
PROPAGATE OFF THE TERRAIN AS MLCIN IS MINIMIZED. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INITIALLY IS YIELDING A NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH WITH
INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE BUOYANCY LAYER. MOST CAM GUIDANCE
HAS SIGNALED A PREDOMINANT SPLITTING SUPERCELL SCENARIO WITH
LEFT-MOVERS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH
A MORE MIXED ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE TO FARTHER NORTH, VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. OVERALL STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED BUT MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS A WEST TX LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 30180384 30230317 30570269 31300228 31940213 32380223
32660242 32650294 32940363 32850422 32240436 30440453
30180384
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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