160
ACUS11 KWNS 251920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251919
OHZ000-KYZ000-252115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251919Z - 252115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST COULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF THINNER
CIRRUS CANOPY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDWEST. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 25
KTS COULD PROMOTE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. ENHANCED 850 MB WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FEW
STRONGER/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS. FURTHERMORE, WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS NOTED IN KLVX/KJKL VAD DATA. IT IS POSSIBLE A
STORM OR TWO COULD EXHIBIT WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER, TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS LOW. ADDITIONALLY, LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE ALL WEAK. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE SPATIALLY LIMITED AND MARGINAL.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37318683 38308511 38918406 38958314 38668274 37738300
37228395 36868550 36928660 37028676 37318683
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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