354
ACUS03 KWNS 251932
SWODY3
SPC AC 251931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY, THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE
PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGING, WITH THE FIRST EFFECTS -- IN
THE FORM HEIGHT FALLS -- SPREADING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BEGIN TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS, TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW
SHIFTING GRADUALLY INTO/ACROSS THE NEBRASKA VICINITY. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD, THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS.
..THE PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO RESULT IN MODERATE PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. THE EFFECTS OF
RIDGING-INDUCED SUBSIDENCE -- IN THE FORM OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPPING
-- WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HINDERING MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL STORMS.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOWEVER, ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED, LIKELY MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NEBRASKA VICINITY
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. HERE,
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH MORE ISOLATED, BUT WOULD
LIKELY POSE LOCAL SEVERE RISK GIVEN A THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.
OVERNIGHT, AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- AND ASSOCIATED
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ATOP THE WARM FRONT -- SHOULD
SUSTAIN LATE-PERIOD STORMS, AND AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK.
..GOSS.. 04/25/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page