724
ACUS11 KWNS 252020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019
TXZ000-252145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 172...
VALID 252019Z - 252145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 172 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW-MOVING, LONG-LIVED INTENSE
SUPERCELL WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS PORTION OF WW 172,
ALONG A LARGELY WEST/EAST-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
DRIFTING EAST OVER BAILEY COUNTY, WITH ADDITIONAL INCIPIENT CELLS TO
ITS EAST TOWARDS PLAINVIEW. SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ONGOING
ACTIVITY. WITH ONLY AROUND 20-KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR PER THE LUBBOCK
VWP, VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE OVERARCHING THREAT IN THE
NEAR TERM, POTENTIALLY REACHING BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE. BUT
STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD COMMENCE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING WITH INGEST OF MID 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT,
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE ENOUGH INTO THIS TIME FRAME TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO IN THE MOST INTENSE/MATURE
SUPERCELL ANCHORED ALONG THE MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 04/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
LAT...LON 34080287 34180228 34160204 34120170 34020123 33760075
33510068 33220083 33070100 33010138 33120183 33400212
33650254 33810291 34080287
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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