010
ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS....
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
A MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL DRAW RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A DRYLINE SHARPENS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EAST
OF THIS DRYLINE AND STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH LESSER
INHIBITION WITH INCREASING LATITUDE. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND A SHARP
DRYLINE CIRCULATION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHWARD. A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WHEREVER SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION, BUT
COVERAGE CONCERNS PRECLUDE A GREATER CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
FARTHER NORTH, NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, STORM COVERAGE PROBABILITIES
INCREASE DUE TO STRONGER FORCING AND WEAKER INHIBITION. AT LEAST A
FEW SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY FROM NORTHERN KANSAS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY EVENING WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SMALL DURING THE EVENING, BUT ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
AFTER 00Z, HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE QUITE RAPIDLY WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, STORM
LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE, ANY SUPERCELLS WHICH DEVELOP, MAY MOSTLY
EXIST PRIOR TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THEREFORE, ONLY 2
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME DESPITE A
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER CONDITIONAL THREAT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET.
..BENTLEY.. 04/26/2025
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