784
ACUS11 KWNS 260610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260609 COR
TXZ000-NMZ000-260800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...
VALID 260609Z - 260800Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS FROM THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHERE THE
RAP IS ANALYZING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE STORMS
ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET OVER WEST
TEXAS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 06Z IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 2 KILOMETERS. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. IN
ADDITION, SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
..BROYLES.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34150365 34240426 34370438 34490443 34600442 34770425
35080372 35480248 35540227 35570145 35320123 34980118
34480171 34210242 34150365
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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