214
ACUS11 KWNS 260844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260843
TXZ000-261045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...
VALID 260843Z - 261045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. WEATHER WATCH EXTENSION MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AS THE 09Z WATCH EXPIRATION APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION...LATEST HI-RES RADAR IMAGERY FROM AMARILLO SHOWS AN MCS
OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS RELATIVELY LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
LOCATED ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED INSTABILITY GRADIENT, WITH
THE RAP SUGGESTING THAT MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS, AND BY WARM ADVECTION THAT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WSR-88D VWP FROM AMARILLO
HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AROUND 1 KM
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THIS AMOUNT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MY
LAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS, AND COULD NECESSITATE A WATCH
EXTENSION.
..BROYLES.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34459998 34270044 34230133 34260246 34470297 34760301
34960294 35130263 35140179 35100012 34459998
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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