539
ACUS11 KWNS 260958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260957
OKZ000-TXZ000-261230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 260957Z - 261230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
ALSO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY, THE
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
ALONG AN EAST-TO-WEST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP HAS
MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EASTWARD
ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35
KNOTS WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WITH SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND ORGANIZATION.
..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34249977 34039802 34869768 35129801 35229878 35189985
35080032 34900054 34700057 34530052 34340026 34249977
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page