348
ACUS11 KWNS 261420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261419
OKZ000-TXZ000-261615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN OK...NRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261419Z - 261615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE
MAINTAINED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MIDDAY. HOWEVER, THE RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND APPEARS UNLIKELY TO SUBSTANTIVELY INCREASE
FROM WHAT IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, FOCUSED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A REMNANT PLUME OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER AIR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS, MAY BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER VICINITY. CONVECTION REMAINS STRONGEST IN A SMALL CLUSTER
NOW EAST AND SOUTH OF FORT SILL OK, NEAR ONE MORE NOTABLE MESO-BETA
SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH HAS EVOLVED. A BROADER MCV MAY BE
SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
THIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED (DUE TO CLOCKWISE
TURNING OF WIND FIELDS/SHEAR VECTORS WITH HEIGHT), BUT MODEST (ON
THE ORDER OF 20 KT) SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW, MAINTAINED BY
SEASONABLY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPDRAFT INFLOW. BASED ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM FWD, THIS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG, WHICH MAY NOT CHANGE
APPRECIABLY AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR/NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER INTO MID DAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER, IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND RED RIVER
VICINITY, COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UNTIL THEN,
POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY
APPEARS LOW IN THE NEAR TERM.
..KERR/SMITH.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 35009770 35189600 34869528 33299545 32859693 33450017
33819873 34039815 34339794 35009770
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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