160
ACUS02 KWNS 261719
SWODY2
SPC AC 261718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JETLET WILL EJECT THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DIURNALLY DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE
PRIMARY LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL SD VICINITY BY
12Z MONDAY. A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO NE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/JET STREAK. TWO
CORRIDORS OF INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE APPARENT BY EARLY
EVENING, CENTERED ON THE NE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST MT, JUST AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOWS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH REGIONS, BUT
ADEQUATE MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER WINDS. THE BREADTH OF THE UNCAPPED WARM-MOIST SECTOR WILL
BE CONFINED THOUGH AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINATELY
ELEVATED SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE OVERARCHING THREAT,
WITH A MIXED WIND/HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY EVOLVING AMID SIGNALS OF A
LINEAR CLUSTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD.
..KS TO WEST TX
A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE DRYLINE. A
PLUME OF LARGE BUOYANCY COINCIDENT WITH A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
WILL EXIST FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN KS. FORCING FOR ASCENT,
OUTSIDE OF A WEAKLY RETREATING DRYLINE CIRCULATION, IS NEBULOUS.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS,
OUTSIDE OF THE TX BIG BEND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 04/26/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page