484
ACUS11 KWNS 261805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261805
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-262000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA ...CNTRL AND SRN MD...DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261805Z - 262000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
THROUGH 3-5 PM EDT, WITH SOME ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNDERWAY TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE, WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING MOST SUBSTANTIVELY
IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND MIXING, IN THE WAKE OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN STILL OVERSPREADING NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. THROUGH 19-21Z, THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT
CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE
AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG, WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA, NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK, AS STRONGER
COOLING ALOFT LAGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BUT, WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS (TO 30-35 KT AROUND
500 MB), THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO SMALL MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS, ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS
WHICH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR/SMITH.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501
38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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