978
ACUS11 KWNS 261929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261928
TXZ000-NMZ000-262130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261928Z - 262130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...WITH CONTINUING CONVECTION WITHIN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT HAS
BEEN TOO SHORT TO PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER TO THE WEST,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEEPENING PER DAY CLOUD
PHASE IMAGERY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHES UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN.
WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
(WHERE IT HAS REMAINED CLOUD FREE) AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY, SUPERCELLS WOULD LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN THIS MORNINGS OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS IN THE REGION SUGGEST LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS
SOMEWHAT LESS CERTAIN GIVEN WHAT WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY BE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER, BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG/NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE GREATER SRH FOR STORMS THAT FAVORABLY
INTERACT WITH IT. THERE WILL BE A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
JET THIS EVENING, BUT, GIVEN THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT, THE SPATIAL WINDOW FOR GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED/CONDITIONAL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 34320539 34990547 35180540 35430514 35450483 35380461
34820408 34210380 33560359 32970322 32090328 31670392
31970455 33240527 33900547 34320539
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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