444
ACUS11 KWNS 261950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261950
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-262145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR...NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261950Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH 4-6 PM CDT, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS
POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL, LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF REMNANT MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD INTO/ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE RAPID
REFRESH INDICATES THAT THERE IS A LINGERING POCKET OF RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR (-12 TO -13C AROUND 500 MB), ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION OVERSPREADING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY VICINITY, WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEST-NORTHWEST OF DURANT TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX VICINITY.
THE MORE RECENT CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFUSE NEAR SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING, WHERE INFLOW
EMANATING FROM A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST, BUT A BRIEF
TORNADO MIGHT NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
..KERR/SMITH.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35039549 34629405 33879322 32719385 33069486 33929644
34409655 35039549
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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