066
ACUS11 KWNS 262216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262216
TXZ000-NMZ000-262345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262216Z - 262345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS A PAIR OF
SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TRANS-PECOS MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2.00+ INCH
HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRANS-PECOS MOUNTAINS, WITH 2500+ J/KG OF
MLCAPE TO THE EAST, AND 45-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN
BOUNDARY PERPENDICULAR SHEAR VECTORS, SUPERCELL STORM MODE IS LIKELY
TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRIMARILY
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS SHOULD FAVOR SPLITTING OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY WITH LEFT
SPLITS. SOME MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPH FROM
FORECAST PROXIMITY PROFILES, ALONG WITH ML LCL HEIGHTS AROUND
1100-1300 METERS, COULD SUPPORT TORNADO OCCURRENCE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR 2.00+ INCH
HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS.
..HALBERT/GUYER.. 04/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30030231 30250309 30650367 31140408 31720444 32050438
32310375 32390292 32330247 32160179 31860156 31310137
30880137 30430145 30210152 30040173 30030231
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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