811
ACUS11 KWNS 270014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270013
TXZ000-NMZ000-270215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 175...
VALID 270013Z - 270215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 175 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 175 WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF TWO ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS NEAR ROSWELL AND FORT SUMNER, NM.
DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF RIGHTWARD-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RECENT TRENDS IN
THE KFDX VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE OF
THE HODOGRAPH, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENLARGE THIS EVENING WITH
THE ONSET OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
THAT ARE ANTIPARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY STORM-MOTION VECTORS WILL
RESULT IN AN OVERALL ENHANCEMENT OF THE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE, SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
60+ MPH WINDS, 2.0+ INCH HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
SHORT-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO STABILIZE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AFTER 01Z, LIMITING SOME OF
THE TORNADO THREAT AFTER DARK, BUT PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONES FED BY
STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER AFTER DARK.
..HALBERT.. 04/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32630435 33430472 33950486 34640497 34960502 35390467
35470425 35360379 35100332 34660304 34140293 33510280
33150282 32840292 32610323 32500389 32630435
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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