030
ACUS03 KWNS 270654
SWODY3
SPC AC 270653
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.
..DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW YORK TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY
BUT WEAKER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN INDIANA
AND OHIO, WITH STRONGER FLOW, BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS NEW
YORK. THEREFORE, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NEW YORK AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A
GREATER HAIL THREAT LIKELY ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE OZARKS, THE
FRONT WILL BE MORE STATIONARY. MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE
PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
THAT STRONG, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, LIKELY ACROSS OKLAHOMA, ON TUESDAY. SOUTH
AND WEST OF THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS WHERE THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR SUNSET SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 04/27/2025
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