687
ACUS03 KWNS 271929
SWODY3
SPC AC 271929
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OH
TO WESTERN PA/NY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE POTENTIAL, MAINLY FROM HAIL, IS
APPARENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS
A CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD DRIFT EAST. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST ON SHOULD QUICKLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS.
..EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A PERVASIVE EML WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS A BROADENING WARM-MOIST SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY NORTHWARD, TRAILING
IN MAGNITUDE BUT STILL MODERATE TO STRONG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
WHILE EVOLUTION OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FROM LATE D2 IS UNCERTAIN,
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AMID ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, OVERALL SETUP COULD
FAVOR DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT EVENTUALLY MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS/SHORT LINES BY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT IN
UPGRADING/EXPANDING CATEGORICAL RISKS ALONG WITH ADDING A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HIGHLIGHT, MOST LIKELY FOR HAIL AT THIS TIME.
..TX/OK
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY MODULATED, QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS RENDERS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MITIGATE A CORRIDOR OF GREATER
SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT A MESOSCALE-DRIVEN ENHANCED RISK MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH MOST GUIDANCE HINTING AT
TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PORTION OF THE ZONE NEAR THE RED RIVER. MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THAT
CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW DRYLINE SUPERCELLS FAVORED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 04/27/2025
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