628
ACUS11 KWNS 272029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272029
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...2NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272029Z - 272230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE LOW,
BUT WILL INCREASE FOR STORMS PERSISTING NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...AS THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON,
CLUSTERS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. WITH TIME AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, A
SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN EASTERN COLORADO. LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTH AND WEST AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS RESPOND TO THE SURFACE
CYCLONE.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 45 KTS ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PROMOTE
DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INITIALLY LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING, ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS ONGOING WILL HAVE AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. STORM COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS APPEAR
POSSIBLE GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 04/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41180373 41710412 42850358 42740190 42150098 41420084
40730085 40520156 40540220 40820308 41180373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page