634
ACUS11 KWNS 272218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272217
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272217Z - 272345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEW WW APPEARS WARRANTED.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST WY, WHICH
FAVORS CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING INTO SOUTHEAST MT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPENING
TOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST BIG HORN COUNTY MT.
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATURE AND SPREAD EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR SUPERCELLS, AND
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES AS DEW POINTS
RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S.
CONVECTION IS ALSO DEEPENING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITHIN A WIND
PROFILE THAT ALSO FAVORS SUPERCELLS. MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY
SPREAD WEST INTO THIS REGION WHICH WOULD AID BUOYANCY WITHIN A
VEERING WIND PROFILE.
NEW WATCH APPEARS WARRANTED ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW/GUYER.. 04/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 44120359 44850434 45060587 45810547 45710323 44430220
44120359
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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