603
ACUS11 KWNS 280558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280558
SDZ000-NEZ000-280730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 280558Z - 280730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT ARE
EXPECTED. WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF THE
ONGOING WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEVERE LINE
SEGMENT FROM FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY, WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/G RANGE.
IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, WARM ADVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST VWP IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A GRADUALLY VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, SUGGESTING THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE
STRONGER COMPONENTS OF THE LINE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE
LINE.
..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42990067 42580055 42219999 42289906 42539767 42869694
43279665 43899664 44299693 44569742 44629800 44289947
43980035 43480067 42990067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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